Wednesday, September 03, 2008

Alternative Energy to Follow Commodities Lower

Today alternative energy stocks saw distribution and technical breakdowns signaling the start of a broader move lower. With weakness across the board in coal, oil, natural gas, and other commodities, this appears to be a logical adjustment. Some of the more predictable action right now is in sectors related to energy and commodities. A number of these related sectors are providing very good short selling opportunities.

- FSLR is sitting at the 200 day moving average. With poor action today throughout the solar sector, FSLR appears likely to break important support in the near future. I am watching for a break below 240.00 to sell short.



- MOS: Agriculture is also weak as the hype over biofuels moderates and energy continues its bear market. I am looking for a break below today's low as a short entry.



- CF: Looking for a break below the 200 day moving average.



- WFR: Solar and semiconductors were slammed today. In neither case is is good for WFR. I am looking to short strength here.



- JCI: Looks like a short under today's low.



- TBSI, EGLE, EXM: The dry shippers are breaking down with volume.





- GTLS is breaking down with some volume.



- AMSC: Another energy technologies company. I will look to short on a move below today's low.



Overall, yesterday's action was further evidence that a big downward move is coming soon for the broader market. With the gap up at the open, and weakness throughout the past two days in energy, commodities, emerging markets, and technology, one wonders how long the consumer sector buyers can hold the major indexes above critical support. Retail, homebuilders, and financials have continued to attract buyers, but now they are under resistance and seem overbought. For now, the clearest signals seem to be coming from the energy-related sectors, and the signs are for more weakness ahead.

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